If you have ever driven kids on a long trip, the question, “Are we there yet?” probably rings in your ears. It is so standard and recurrent that Hollywood made it the title of a movie that has at least one sequel. With regard to Boko Haram, Nigerians have to be asking the question, have we finished them off or not? The answer coming from the military and the Buhari administration is yes one day and no another.
In the second week of September, military spokesman Col. Rabe Abubakar was categorical about Nigeria’s victory.“As I am speaking to you, all the terrorists’ camps have completely been wiped out,” he was variously quoted as saying at a press conference,“So, right now they are completely in disarray, having no command and control of where to plan. We have even taken over the camps that most of them have even abandoned their bases and blended within towns and communities.”
Since then the military have continued to issue reports of continued progress and destruction of camps. Each such announcement raises the question, if “all the terrorists’ camps” were “wiped out” in the first place, why are there more camps to wipe out?
For example, about 10 days after Col. Abubakar gave us the heart-warming news, there was this lead in a story in the UK Telegraph: “The Nigerian military has freed 241 women and children in raids on Boko Haram camps and captured 43 suspected fighters, including a man it described as a ‘kingpin’ of the terror group. The raids on Tuesday were part of Operation Lafiya Dole, a bid to clear out the area surrounding Banki in Borno State which is close to the border with Cameroon.”Great news, certainly. Problem is that it discredits the even greater news from 10 days earlier.
In the same news story, the Chief of Army Statff, Lt-Gen Tukur Buratai, said they were making progress in finding the Chibok girls in the Sambisa forest. “I believe that the girls must be somewhere within the general area of the forest, but we are not yet sure exactly where they are,” he was quoted as telling Nigerian journalists. “As soon as this is confirmed, we will attempt to see what we can do to bring them back in one piece.”
So, if the girls might be “in the general area of the forest,” what is the meaning of the earlier report that all their camps have been wiped out?
Early last week, the military issued an ultimatum to Boko Haram militants to surrender or be vanquished. In a statement sent to the Agence France Presse, Army spokesman Col. Sani Usman reportedly said:”They should follow their colleagues who have so far surrendered. Failure to surrender will result in serious consequences as our troops are fast closing up on them. We wish to inform them that we are aware of all their hideouts, camps and enclaves.”
In other words, about one month after we learned that all the camps have been wiped out, we are told the military merely knows about the camps and hideouts and are just closing in.
Then, just this past Tuesday, the AFP carried a news story with this lead: “Nigeria has warned civilians that Boko Haram is using deadly cluster bombs but campaigners say the Islamists may have got the banned weapons from the military in the first place.” In effect, not only are the terrorists still a formidable force, the problem of saboteurs in the military is ever more treacherous.
That same day, according to Reuters, the U.N. High Commission for Refugees issued the alert that, “The Islamist guerrillas of Boko Haram have made the swamplands of Lake Chad, where the borders of Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria meet, into a ‘war zone.’”
So, the question might not be whether we are there yet, but whether we are actually getting close.
Buhari’s double-talk
President Muhammadu Buhari has not helped matters with his improbable directives and contradictory statements. He has issued an ultimatum to his newly appointed military chiefs and commanders to end the Boko Haram menace in short time. Some accounts said the deadline is early in November and others said by the end of December.
The ultimatum suggests that the retired general is not any more clued about the insurgency than was his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, the erstwhile zoology lecturer. Jonathan too repeatedly issued such ill-advised directives only to repeatedly have pies in his face.
The deadlines and ultimatums are based on erroneous assumptions that Buhari and the military should have known by now. First and foremost is that containing insurgent groups is rarely ever a matter of deadlines. Secondly, it should be known by now that Boko Haram is an umbrella name for disparate groups under various commands. There will always be a holdout and resilient group. In fact, some factions recently adopted the name Islamic State’s West African Province, an indication of further consolidation with the ambitiously named group that occupies a large swath of territory from Iraq to Syria.
Moreover, there are two dimensions to the Boko Haram challenge. On the one hand, they see themselves as the government of a territory that they occupy, expand and defend. Second, they are a terrorist group that sets off bombs in population centres to exert much toll. If the military accomplish the improbable and “wipe out” the first dimension of Boko Haram by December-ending, should we also expect them to “wipe out” the second dimension? Or shall we declare victory if the bombs still blast away.
What perplexes the most is Buhari’s double-talk on how the Boko Haram challenge will be ended. On numerous occasions, he has said that the Boko Haram cannot be defeated by military means alone. Then he issues an ultimatum and deadline to the military. Does he expect his generals to execute the military battles, as well as the economic programmes that he sees as a complement?
As I have written before, Jonathan’s greatest failure regarding Boko Haram is in not communicating forthrightly about the challenge. Unfortunately, Buhari is making the same mistake.
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