Will the Niger Delta erupt into another orgy of violence reminiscent of its violent past? Will militants begin another frenzy of kidnappings, bombing and pipeline vandalism that characterised the former President Olusegun Obasanjo era? The possibility of Nigeria’s oil rich region spiralling into its violent past when militants agitating for equitable distribution of resources shut down oil production and crippled the country’s oil-dependent economy has dominated public discourse since President Muhammadu Buhari assumed power.
There are fears that former militants who had laid down their arms to embrace the peace pact brokered under the administration of the late former President Umaru Yar’Adua now seem on edge to return to the creeks, a euphemism for another all-out war with the Federal Government. The drums of war had reached its crescendo in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Indeed, before the elections, Niger Delta militants had issued threats that then President Goodluck Jonathan must be on the ballot for a second term which he eventually lost to President Muhammadu Buhari.
In the heat of the elections, the violent rhetoric by the former militant leaders assumed a certain urgency that threatened the peace of the country. On one occasion, a militant leader had threatened, “For every Goliath, God created a David. For every Pharoah, there is a Moses. We are going for war. Everyone of you should go and fortify yourself.” However, the presidential election came and went. Commonsense prevailed as the President conceded defeat and the nation was saved from an imminent crisis that had hung on the nation like the Sword of Damocles.
Now, several months after Buhari was sworn in, the threat of violence in the Niger Delta is brewing again. This time, it is the controversy surrounding the status of the amnesty programme that is threatening to create another major flashpoint that may cause another round of crisis in the region. In the years since a truce was brokered, the status of the programme has always been a subject of controversy. The fears by the beneficiaries have always been about the terminal date of the programme.
While the militants believe amnesty should continue in perpetuity, the new administration of President Buhari has affirmed its readiness to discontinue the programme in line with the December 2015 terminal date. In his inaugural speech, the President had confirmed that the programme would end in December. But he did not disclose any exit strategy that would ensure that outstanding commitments were cleared.
The President had said: “The amnesty programme in the Niger Delta is due to end in December, but the government intends to invest heavily in the projects, and programmes currently in place. I call on the leadership and people in these areas to cooperate with the state and federal governments in the rehabilitation programmes, which will be streamlined and made more effective. As ever, I am ready to listen to grievances of my fellow Nigerians. I extend my hand of fellowship to them so that we can bring peace and build prosperity for our people.”
No doubt, the terminal date of December has become a sore point between the militants and the Federal Government. With no defined exit strategy, one can guess how the entire region will react when the plug is finally pulled on a programme the militants consider a birth right—a right they waged a bloody war to win. What happens after December is still unknown. How does Buhari hope to address the challenges that may arise due to the discontinuation of the programme?
While the President’s timely gesture to implement the UNEP Report on Ogoniland may have demonstrated his long term vision of addressing the degradation of the region, how does he solve the bread and butter mentality of a people long given to the culture of entitlement perpetuated by years of corrupt and incompetent leadership and tokenism? Indeed, fears that the brewing tension may snowball into violence is real. There have been pockets of violence in places like Rivers State where controversies over governorship election have claimed lives and property. One cannot divorce the violence that characterised the 2015 elections in Rivers from a culture of violence that has pervaded a region that has always teetered on the verge of chaos.
For one, there are too many weapons in the wrong hands as politicians have for years armed militant groups to win elections. Beyond this, decades of neglect, crushing poverty, and environmental damage caused by the oil and gas industry have left the oil-rich Niger Delta region vulnerable to renewed violence. The amnesty brokered in 2009 significantly reduced attacks on pipelines and other petroleum facilities, increasing oil production from 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the peak of militancy to 2.4 million bpd a few years after the peace treaty was brokered.
However, egregious onshore and maritime oil theft, substandard infrastructure, and the lack of an economic growth engine outside the petroleum sector remain persistent challenges. Though the region provides nearly 80 per cent of the government’s oil revenues, the Niger Delta still suffers from endemic poverty and dismal government services. The limited scope and timeframe of the amnesty programme which expires in December, a shortage of sufficient employment opportunities for thousands of amnesty beneficiaries, corruption in the implementation of the programme, and the Federal Government’s failure to address the region’s underlying grievances could result in a resumption of broader and more violent criminal activity without concerted government action.
But many have also criticised the Jonathan administration for failing to implement enduring programmes that would have lifted the region out of poverty in its six years in power. The administration had particularly come under intense criticism for deepening the sense of entitlement where instead of implementing programmes prefered to enrich a few of the region’s elite at the expense of the bottom poor majority. Unfortunately, agencies like NDDC and the Niger Delta ministry which have the mandate to implement social and economic development projects have been largely ineffective. Even the administration of the amnesty programme has been mired in allegations of corruption and mismanagement. To underscore the urgency of addressing the coming anarchy in the region, the global think tank International Crisis group, considers the Niger Delta crisis a top priority the Buhari administration must address before the termination of the amnesty programme. In its report titled, Curbing Violence In Nigeria, Revisiting Niger Delta, the group had noted “Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances.”
The group recommended that the President “needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty programme gradually, revamp development and environmental programmes, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill and improve security and rule of law across the region.” Among other recommendations, the ICG urges Buhari to visit the region to assure the people of his determination to address lingering issues of poverty and unemployment at the root of the Niger Delta crisis. It is also being urged to take steps to and strengthen agencies like the NDDC to perform their roles. The President indeed must work to find a lasting solution to bring enduring peace and development to the region.
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