#MondayColumn - APC - P For Precarious

Whether the All Progressives Congress (APC)
admits it or not, or for that matter, whether it is
aware of it or not, the ruling party is doing
something very unusual, if not downright stupid: It
is struggling to maintain a balance standing on one
leg; and, not surprisingly, making mess of its
efforts. How could a political party that has
everything going for it, be so pathetically
retrogressive that it is now hanging by the skin of
its teeth for dear life?
It would have been understandable, though not
excusable, if the APC has fallen victim to some
brilliant political manoeuvering by its rival, the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But as it is, the
PDP, which only two months ago was down with a
bloody nose, in disarray, apportioning blame
among its members, and virtually about to
disintegrate into history, has been handed a lifeline
on a platter of gold by the same party that crushed
it at the polls a month earlier. The PDP must have
been taken aback at this unexpected act of
benevolence from its bitter adversary, because it
took the party a while to comprehend what was
really happening; to come to terms with the
strange irony that the same ferocious APC that was
supposed to have finished burying it, is now
bafflingly responsible for its renaissance and at the
APC’s own expense.
Naturally enough, the greater the APC sinks into
chaos, the quicker the PDP’s fortune rejuvenates.
It has now come to a stage where a PDP chieftain
had the cheek to thumb his nose at the APC and to
tell Nigerians: “You will beg us to come back in
2019” and Mr. Lai Mohammed, uncharacteristically
was too stunned to say a word in response. But
true to his own character, corrosive, insensitive,
loathsome, uncouth and insincere political jobbers
like Femi Fani-Kayode-turned- Olukayode took to
the Internet to gloat, with despicable lack of
respect for human life and all but celebrating the
resurgence of mass killings in the northern part of
the country! Circumstances, for the APC, its
supporters and for those who look up to it for
salvation, can hardly get worse. Perhaps, at some
point in the future, some social science genius will
untangle the knotty question of how a party that
came into office with the kind of massive national
and international support like the APC’s had (yes,
had), is inexplicably turning against itself with
daggers drawn, so to speak, and leaving its arch
rival to take the spoils.
But putting aside the agitation for the appointment
of ministers and other key aides for the president
and his deputy, which would come “in the fullness
of time;” and using the resurgent insurgency as the
main yardstick of measuring how the government
has fared so far, one might ask: is the situation
really as bad as it appears? For the close relations
and friends of those who have lost their lives in the
renewed spate of bombings in the North, and the
wider northern population and all patriotic
Nigerians, this will sound like a very silly question,
because for those directly affected by the recent
tragedies, the insurgency has already meted out to
them the ultimate punishment.
But in actual fact, the government of President
Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) is yet to begin the
implementation of what it has described as its
comprehensive plan to crush the insurgency once
and for all. The relocation of the command and
control centre to Maiduguri by the military
authorities is yet to be completed; the ‘surgical’
military equipment that will give the military the
technological edge required to engage the
insurgents in the impenetrable Sambisa forest are
yet to arrive because some of them are made to
order; and the other partners in the multinational
coalition that have pledged to join forces in
fighting the insurgency are yet to announce their
readiness to commence simultaneous operations
from their own parts of the operating areas of the
insurgency. Thus in all probability, the deadly spike
in the activities of the insurgents might well be a
desperate attempt by the insurgents to preemptive
the government’s plans, which the insurgents must
know will be as comprehensive and as devastating
as the authorities in the affected countries have
promised. This would make sense, especially if
viewed against the fact that the spike appears to
be taking place, intermittently, between the ‘three
nations-plus-one’ (Nigeria, Chad, Niger plus
Cameroon, which appears to be cooperating half-
heatedly) that are in partnership to launch the
much-awaited crushing offensive against the
insurgents.
Of course, this is not to provide any kind of
excuses for the government; because the
agitations by Nigerians that are beginning to lose
faith in the government is understandable. But we
must not lose our heads even in the face of what
is understandably a frightening regression to the
time when the insurgency was at its peak. Losing
our heads and turning us against the government
is precisely what the insurgents would have hoped
for: To incite the people against the regime, to
demoralise the government and to stampede it into
losing its focus. Very much like the ways of the
former regime, which Nigerians fought very hard to
remove. But we must remember that this is a
government that is only 40 days old, and for some
inexplicable reason, a government that is being
seriously distracted, undermined even, by its own
senior party members whose rebellious attitude is
being aggravated by the crude opportunism of the
now revived PDP, under whose watch the situation
degenerated to the level it had in the first place.
It is in this context that the situation within the
ruling party must or should be viewed.
Specifically, it is within this prism that the
unending rancour among the members of the
ruling party in the National Assembly must be
situated. The 8th National Assembly was
inaugurated exactly a month ago. But up until now,
the ruling party, which is in control of the National
Assembly (NASS) is steeped in a power struggle
that is strengthening its rival by the day. It is very
obvious to all that given the extreme positions
adopted by the different factions within the NASS,
the stage is set for a long drawn out battle that
might not end until and unless one faction goes
down. Which is to say that unless one of the two
warring factions makes a very visible and
necessary sacrifice, the outcome is likely to hurt
the APC while simultaneously strengthening the
opposition PDP. That would be a painful blow to
Nigerians who worked so very hard to enable the
APC take over power. Therefore, who should back
down is the mega question. Senator Bukola Saraki,
whose unorthodox political opportunism triggered
the crisis is unlikely to back down, according to
his “body language”; and the speaker of the House
of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, seems to have
adopted a “where Saraki goes I follow” stance.
On the other hand, President Buhari, the most
significant “outsider” in this increasingly bitter
political struggle in the NASS, seems
characteristically resolute that the party’s position,
which is emphatically opposed to both Saraki and
Dogara, must be respected. To underscore the
president’s own hardline position, it is said that
Senator Saraki has so far made several efforts, and
failed, to have a face-to-face meeting with the
president. The result is that the last 30 days that
could have been used to set the agenda of Change
for the National Assembly, especially in fighting the
renewed insurgency, is already wasted; while the
squabbling shows no sign of abetting (but they
were careful not to allow their differences get in the
way of sorting out the very important issue of their
various allowances).
Which makes all of us Nigerians, except the PDP,
losers. And which puts the APC in a very
precarious position, indeed. A position that is
symbolised by the precariousness of the situation
of the Senate president, who appears to be floating
between the position he has taken, and the
position he should take. He seems determined to
hang on of course; but like his party, he also is
obviously only holding unto his position by the
skin of his teeth. If the controversial Senate
president wasn’t so immersed in his own self-
interest at the expense of his party, he would
realise that there is only one way he could have
peace: Step down, allow for a fresh election with
all the senators in attendance. If he could summon
the statesmanship to that, he will either win the
Senate presidency freely, fairly and indisputably; or
if he loses, regain what is left of his political
momentum – or honour if you like. Because like it
or not, President Buhari is the pillar upon which
the APC was constructed. To fight him
continuously is to be in perpetual conflict with the
very foundation of the party; unless of course, if
that is Mr. Saraki’s intention, which I doubt.
Because even if you discount other powerful
adversaries such as Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu,
whose immense sacrifice to the party is only
second to that of the Kebbi State woman who gave
birth while queuing to cast her vote for the APC, it
is a fight Senator Saraki cannot possibly win. And
he is smart enough to know that. His position, to
put it in black and white, is simply precarious and
only he can reverse it.
By Garba Deen Muhammad (Vanguard)
deengarba@yahoo.com